The Mysteries of Advanced Automation and Super Intelligent Computers

I'm Brian, and I now reside in Dallas and Fort Worth. I hold an MBA, a Master of Engineering, and a Bachelor of Science in computer engineering. I've worked as a security engineer for a while, but I only just began adjunct professor lecturing.

I'm working on a doctorate in computer science with a focus on information assurance and cybersecurity. I decided on this area of study based on my professional background and ongoing interest in the cyber sector. I'll be doing research on how AI and ML will alter the cyber world in the future.

I really am looking forward to learning more about the meta in my Future and Innovation class. I believe that asking/answering the right questions will put me on the best track for having an effective dissertation overall. My personal interest lies in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. This blog will detail the mystery around rogue AI devices and their development. One of the biggest driving forces I can see are the legal parameters of artificial intelligence. According to Brownsword, “debates about the law, regulation, and governance of robots, artificial intelligence (“AI”), and machine learning have been dominated by voices from North America” (Brownsword, 2022).

 Laws will need to be much more sophisticated to support the innovative development of these machines. There will also need to be more punishment enforced for those who choose to create artificial intelligence machines to do harm. Another key force is the technological implications and maturity of these models. Such a technologically advanced innovation would be immensely strong and, in certain cases, may even be able to achieve its goals despite human dissatisfaction or non-approval. The preferences of this A.I. would then influence the future that we would live in as humans.  To begin with, I believe we must refrain from generalizing in order to move on with this. Ironically, every media outlet highlighting the potential for artificial intelligence has a picture of how convenient it makes things.  Therefore, I believe that what we need to do is think about the potential problems as well as the more abstract and exciting cinema scenarios.

Futuring and Innovation - CS875

Unit 4 – Discussion Board

Brian Pullen

Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Colorado Technical University

Delphi Technique

The Delphi method is a framework for predicting based on the responses to many rounds of questionnaires distributed to a group of experts. The anonymous replies are compiled and shared with the group after each round of the questionnaires, which are distributed in several rounds. A minimum of two rounds are required for the survey, and the response from the first round is provided in the second round (and subsequent rounds). When there is a lack of data or to learn about potential patterns, it is employed. Only expert opinions may be used as a source of data for predictions. However, various "Delphi techniques have been used to define group consensus, expert selection, the number of rounds, and reporting on the method and results. Therefore, researchers need to define “consensus” and the “cut-off value” if an agreement rate is used. Although there are numerous challenges and questions raised when using this technique, it is essential for achieving consensus on issues where none existed previously" (Naserrudin, 2022).

Nominal Group Technique

When used in conjunction with brainstorming, the nominal group technique (NGT) is best defined as an organized process where participants generate ideas individually rather than collectively. The method emphasizes collective decision-making and participant innovation. The feedback can include solutions developed as a result of the problems found. Additionally, the significance of the subject is emphasized, and each piece of criticism must be accepted by all participants. Every issue is addressed one at a time until all ideas have been presented by the participants, at which point an agreement is reached. They then assign each person a numerical ranking of the ideas. The group discusses and validates the concepts that received the highest scores since they are considered the greatest. All participants gain from the nominal group strategy since their thoughts are acknowledged and everyone contributes. When there are huge organizations engaged, it becomes even more crucial to the individual. The loudest or most fervent voices may frequently take control of a discussion when there are many people involved.

Compare and Contrast

Both the NGT and the Delphi Technique are consensus-building techniques that enlist a team of "experts" to produce concepts and establish priorities. While the Delphi approach is frequently used to produce recommendations with healthcare professionals, the NGT has been used to investigate consumer and stakeholder perspectives. The NGT involves in-person discussion in small groups and gives researchers a quick answer. As an alternative, the Delphi method preserves participant anonymity by using questionnaires; it can involve more people but requires more time to complete.

References

Naserrudin, N. A., Hod, R., Jeffree, M. S., Ahmed, K., & Mohd, R. H. (2022). Expert consensus on a proposed study framework to explore factors influencing 0RW1S34RfeSDcfkexd09rT2plasmodium knowlesi1RW1S34RfeSDcfkexd09rT2 malaria preventive behavior: A modified delphi method protocol. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(7), 4141. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19074141

Futuring and Innovation - CS875

Unit 5 – Discussion Board 1

Brian Pullen

Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Colorado Technical University

Compare and contrast the concepts of scenario planning and traditional forecasting. Fully explain both concepts so that the reader understands the differences, advantages, and disadvantages of each.

Traditional methods frequently aim to forecast the most likely future or come to an agreement on what would be the most desired future. In both scenarios, the future is viewed as something "unique" that must be precisely predicted or realized as an ideal goal. Forecasters frequently make the assumption that projecting existing patterns to a future period will allow them to predict the most likely future. If the planning environment is sufficiently known and stable, this assumption is accurate. The underlying premise of predictive methods is that the future will resemble the past. If this assumption is used in uncertain planning situations where the future can differ from the past, it might increase risk and potentially increase the possibility of failure.

Future events are not seen as a single aim in scenario planning. The planned future is instead thought of as a "field" of several plausible scenarios that, when taken as a whole, constitute a realistic range of future possibilities with relation to a particular strategic problem. Almost usually, that range exceeds expectations. Because unlikely and bad outcomes occur frequently, professionals should take into account potential futures that may not be plausible or desirable. Uncertainties in their planning contexts are mostly beyond of the control of most businesses. This is why I support a more "strategic" and "adaptive" approach to planning. A strategic action plan has to be resilient and adaptable so that it can take into account the possibilities, problems, and demands of a variety of probable futures. As the planning environment evolves over time, this range may get smaller or bigger. To be "strategic" ready for whatever comes ahead is my planning tenet. According to HRNEWS, "many companies are following the example of intelligence agencies and using scenario planning to consider alternate futures for their organizations—and to create different plans to prepare for those potential outcomes. The process applies various "what-if" scenarios to business contingencies so company leaders can make decisions based on the most likely scenario while staying flexible and able to adjust to changing conditions"(HRNews, 2021).

The majority of organizations have little ability to manage the uncertainties in their planning contexts. For this reason, I support a more cohesive  planning strategy. Strategic planning  should be strong and adaptable so that it can take into account the demands, difficulties, and opportunities of a variety of conceivable futures. As the planning environment evolves over time, this range might become more or less limited. Being "strategically" ready for whatever is ahead is a key component to why I favor this approach.

References:

Scenario planning produces better benefits strategies: Employee benefits are a key part of workforce planning, whatever the future brings. (2021). HRNews, https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/trade-journals/scenario-planning-produces-better-benefits/docview/2556392099/se-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futuring and Innovation - CS875

Unit 6 – Individual Project

Brian Pullen

Dr. Cynthia Calongne

Colorado Technical University

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How does scenario-type planning support planning and innovation for change?

Scenario-type planning gives managers a framework for managing the unpredictable external environment that many companies confront today. The technique has the most promise since it offers adaptable tactics as opposed to one-dimensional ones, potentially raising the standard of corporate choices. Previous studies, however, only looked at the implications of scenario planning indirectly. Therefore, we offer a theory that explains how scenario-based strategic planning may be utilized to improve the quality of decisions.

To achieve this, we concentrate on the three main factors that contribute to the quality of decisions: they should be thorough, quick, and unbiased. Given that it combines fast application, which accelerates decision-making, with open strategic thinking, which lessens prejudice and broadens the scope of decisions, I believe scenario-based strategic planning offers a methodological framework for putting such a process into corporate practice.

What forces are involved, and what impacts do they make?

Scenario planning has many driving forces. It is a branch of the science of strategic thinking that emphasizes forecasting and foresight as analytical frameworks. In forecasting, a future state is calculated using mathematical models. In this example, the driving force is technology and its cultural implications which frequently rely on classic cause-and-effect analysis, which states that if condition x takes place, outcome y will follow as a natural consequence.

 

 

 Forecasting permits a greater margin of error while simultaneously permitting a progressively favorable outcome, so demonstrating its systematically correctness. This is the reason why, for instance, the weather is forecasted. Practitioners research patterns to estimate future projections of climatic conditions through modeling and analysis. However, the accuracy of forecasting is restricted when it comes to addressing complicated social or political prospects.

Include an appropriate illustration or a model.

In order to mitigate opportunistic appropriation of transaction-specific assets, firms select between the two poles of market and/or hierarchy governance modes (Williamson, 1975). However, small, and medium enterprises (henceforth SME) in emerging markets may not be able to focus on either governance mode due to underdeveloped legal, regulatory or market-supporting mechanisms (Sheng et al., 2011; Yeniaras et al., 2020a, b). In such situations, businesses rely on relational governance, a middle mode of governance.

Relational governance refers to inter-organizational transactions that encapsulate relation-specific assets and inter-organizational trust (Zaheer and Venkatraman, 1995). Parties of relational governance are bound by mutual interest and agreed-upon processes (Poppo and Zenger, 2002). These signals keep the collaborators from engaging in opportunistic behaviors (Ghosal and Moran, 1996), especially in emerging economies with market imperfections and institutional vulnerabilities (Yeniaras et al., 2020a). Under such conditions, business and political ties, the types of relational governance, become the economic lifeblood of emerging-economy SMEs (Kaya, 2021).

 

How will you use scenario planning for future innovation efforts?

Businesses that regularly monitor the constantly shifting requirements of their consumers are in a better position to drive change than those that don't. It's crucial to pay close attention to what you already know about client preferences when businesses start planning for 2023 and beyond, they should make every attempt to fill up any knowledge gaps and pursue their objectives with the mindset that value is constantly being added. While getting input from others on new ideas is wonderful, it's probable that no one can match your personal, in-depth understanding of the sector in which you work. The secret is to set to aside the necessary amount of time to reflect carefully on your goals for the future while stepping back from day-to-day activities. Joining a business advisory board is one method to do this.

I personally have been an apart of one and have seen the many benefits. Giving executives and company owners the time to think about what the future may contain and then develop strategies to adapt in ways that speed up growth is the main goal of this form of peer leadership group. These are a couple ways that innovation can be accomplished by utilizing strategic planning.

Does the scenario plan account for the social impact of change?

I do think my approach accounts for social impact. Several theoretical insights highlight the potential of participatory scenario processes to catalyze individual and social transformation and policy change. It is thought that participatory scenario procedures improve participants' comprehension of systems, learning, networking, and consequent changes in practices. However, there is little actual data to support these hypotheses. It assesses if these results were the consequence of the exercise in scenario planning and the degree to which they can aid in transformative processes. My proposed scenario planning efforts take into account shifting requirement solutions and planning.

According to Salifu, “the strategic decision increases concern on the organization's behavior and performance of the individual in an organization. We concentrated on the characteristics of strategic planning influence on organizational behaviors and ideas. This change in organizational behavior impacts the adaptive performance of the individual within the organization. Methodology. Through examination of the organizational behavior internal elements organization, group, and individual. Through the theory of empowerment conceptual model is constructed empowerment of individual quality and performance, group atmosphere for innovation, and organization knowledge-type, those influence on the change in strategy of organization and execution” (Rakib, 2022).

 

References

Rakib, H., Zhi, Z., Salifu, A. I., & Saeed, M. (2022). The impact of strategic planning on the organization behaviour incontext to individual adaptive performance in developed countries. Webology, 19(2), 4904-4914. https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/impact-strategic-planning-on-organization/docview/2695103797/se-2

 

Yeniaras, V., & Kaya, I. (2021). Relational governance, strategic planning and firm performance. Marketing Intelligence & Planning, 39(8), 1104-1120. https://doi.org/10.1108/MIP-04-2021-0122